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Jason Shortes

Latest MBA weekly survey shows mortgage applications are down

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According to the Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage application, volume decreased 3.5% last week from the previous week. Total volume was fourteen percent higher compared with the same week one year ago.

Home loan refinance applications brought the total down, to 8% for the week but still rising 26% higher from a year ago, when interest rates were higher. Home purchase mortgage applications increased 1% last week and were 7% higher than a year ago. Home Purchase applications reached their highest level since April 2010.

The previous two weeks of rising rates are effecting homeowners expecting to refinance, but home-buying remains strong.

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index volume was 14% higher than a year ago which total mortgage application volume decreased 3.5% last week from the previous week.

Home loan refinance applications brought the total down falling, 8% for the week but still 26% higher from last year although interest rates were higher.

Conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with a 20% down payment and loan balances of $484,350 or less increased from 4.40%, to 4.44% with points decreasing from 0.47 to 0.42 including the origination fee making the rate 22 basis points, or nearly a quarter of a percentage point lower than a year ago.

Conforming 15-year fixed-rate mortgages with 80 percent LTV loans moved higher to 3.84% from 3.83%, with higher points from 0.42 to 0.45 making the effective rate increase from last week.

Joel Kan, MBA’s associate vice president of economic and industry forecasting said: “The spring buying season continues to be robust.” “With mortgage rates up for the second week in a row, it’s no surprise that refinancings slid 8%, and average loan sizes dropped back closer to normal levels,”

The mortgage refinance activity fell to 41.5% of total applications from 44.1% the previous week. Adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity fell to 6.6% of total applications.

New economic survey data expected Wednesday, could have a big impact on rates. Interest rates are rising due to concerns about overseas economies as Mortgage rates continued to move higher this week, hitting their highest level in nearly a month.

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As interest rates spike to a near 8-year high, weekly mortgage applications drop 7.1%

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Mortgage application volume fell sharply to 7.1 percent for last week based on a survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s latest report ending October 12, 2018, still the data did not factor in the Columbus Day holiday.

Home loan refinance applications were down 38.1 percent lower than a year ago and fell 39.0 percent from the week before. Rates have incrementally moved up 96 basis points in the past year, and in the past four weeks rates have moved 22 basis points higher. The result is less borrowers able to benefit from lower rates, home loan refinance volume stifled and moved down 39.0 percent the from the week before and fell to 38.1 percent of total applications last week.

For 30-year fixed conforming home loan, purchases with loan balances $453,100 or less rates moved to their highest since February 2011 from 5.05 percent, to 5.10 percent, with higher points from 0.51 to 0.55 not including an origination fee for 80 percent (LTV) loan-to-value, 20 percent down payment loans.

To purchase a home, mortgage applications fell 6 percent for the week. Compared with the same week one year ago application volume was 2.5 percent higher. Homebuyer mortgagor is still strong but market affordability showed signs before rates began to move up as lack of inventory made home prices sharply higher. The combination of rising rates and higher home prices are evident as to why the refinance and home purchasing are slowing down.

Applications for FHA home loans fell 10.4 percent from 10.5 percent the week before. VA applications actually increased to 10.4 percent from 10.0 percent the week before. USDA applications stayed the same at 0.8 from the week before.

Earlier this week October 16, 2018, at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) Annual Convention and Expo in Washington, D.C. MBA chief economist and senior vice president for research and industry technology Mike Fratantoni, said “We are seeing some deceleration in the rate of home price growth, but believe this is a healthy pause for the market, as it will allow income growth to catch up to the recent run-up in home values.”

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According to the most recent survey, volume is down for mortgage applications

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For the week ending October 5, 2018, Mortgage applications moved down 1.7 percent from the previous week, based on data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey.

The Market Composite Index indicator, measures mortgage loan application volume, that shows the decrease to 1.7 percent on its seasonally adjusted base from one week earlier. On the unadjusted base, the Index shows the decrease of 2 percent compared to the week before. The Refinance Index moved down 3 percent from the week before. The unadjusted Purchase Index had decreased by 1 percent compared with the week before and moved 2 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The adjusted Purchase Index moved down 1 percent from one week before.

The mortgage refinance activity moved down to 39.0 percent of total applications from 39.4 percent than the previous week. Adjustable-rate mortgage applications moved up to 7.3 percent of total applications.

The average application rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages defined as a conforming loan with balances $453,100 or less moved up to its highest peak since 2011, at 5.05 percent, from 4.96 percent, with points moving up to 0.51 from 0.49 that does not include the origination fee for the 20 percent down payment or 80 percent (LTV) loan-to-value ratio that also increased from last week.

FHA loan applications moved up to 10.5 percent from 10.2 percent the previous week. VA loan applications stayed the same at 10.0 percent from the previous week. The United States Department of Agriculture applications moved up to 0.8 percent from 0.7 percent the week before.

For Jumbo loans with balances greater than $453,100 the average application rate moved to its highest since July 2011, at 4.99 percent from 4.93 percent including points increasing from 0.31 to 0.35 that does not include an origination fee for the 20 percent down payment or 80 percent (LTV) loan-to-value ratio loan that also increased from last week for Jumbo loans.

FHA backed mortgages effective rate decreased last week with the average application interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate that moved to its highest from 4.95 percent, to 4.98 percent with less points from 0.80 to 0.63 for 80 percent LTV loans that does not include the origination fee.

15-year fixed-rate mortgages moved up to its highest level since April 2010, from 4.39 percent to 4.44 percent, with more points from 0.50 to 0.58 that does not include the origination fee for 20 percent down payment 80 percent LTV loans.

The effective rate increased from last week for 5/1 ARMs increasing to its highest level since the series began in 2011 from 4.24 percent to 4.29 percent with points from 0.48 increasing to 0.52 that does not include the origination fee for 20 percent down payment 80 percent LTV loans.

With rates on the rise, Charles Evans says, the Federal Reserve must plan for the next downturn

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According to a central banker, this is the best time to find the best means to tackle the next downturn as the economy of the United States is getting stronger with the inflation level getting close to the two percent target of the Federal Reserve, as the steady rate increases of the Fed is likely to have subtle impact on growth in the latter part of the coming year. In his address prepared to be delivered in London, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President, Charles Evans confirmed that there is a need to make plans ahead of time. It has been confirmed that fundamental changes in the economy since the outbreak of the financial crisis suggests that there is no need for the rates to be increased to their previous points in order to have a braking impact on the economy.

This is a sign that there will not be enough room to reduce the interest rates to ensure the stimulation of the economy when the next downturn happens, and the Fed might be compelled to apply controversial devices such as bond purchase to drive growth. According to Evans, he said that this is the best time to take a critical look at whether and how the strategic monetary policy framework of the Fed could be altered to tackle these problems. The Fed has been faced with immense pressure to provide a new policy framework as it started the process of increasing rates. The Fed Chair, Jerome Powell has continually avoided public debate sittings in a bid to evade questions regarding what could happen next, and it is not clear if he will be disposed to an idea of re-strategizing policy.

On Wednesday, Evans highlighted some possibilities such as increasing the inflation target to four percent or applying price-level targeting; a strategy which the central bank permits the inflation level to increase beyond the target for extended time during a recovery to compensate for the long periods of below-target inflation during a recession. However, he said the application of the strategy could cause trouble in reality as the public has low tolerance for high inflation.

Evans opined that in a bid to achieve our maximum employment and inflation targets, it might need some long periods of strong monetary policy accommodation which could be inimical to financial stability. He said it is crucial to ensure these factors are considered in the assessment of a new framework.

On a final note, the Fed should also keep its present framework in one piece, as it is better to keep strengthening it with small modifications rather than changing it. Evans said there is a need to remember that the major benchmark is the ability to ensure the mandated policy goals are delivered, especially when we are faced with the scenario of staying with our present framework or changing it.

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During a live conference Canada has a plan for rising rates and high debt

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The economy of Canada will face a significant risk in the next three years as indebted consumers will respond to higher interest rates, this fact is made available by economists from three of the largest financial institutions in Canada.

According to Frances Donald, the head of macroeconomic strategy at Manulife Asset Management, she said the risks in the housing market is still there, after the slow pace in sales recorded earlier in this year when new regulations were imposed by the government. According to her submission at the Bloomberg Canadian Fixed Income Conference in New York on Tuesday, consumers will have to prove their resilience to the increased higher rates. She said that Canada must deal with the scenario for the next few years.

According to Beata Caranci, the chief economist at Toronto-Dominion Bank, she said the consumers lack the power to take Canada out of recession like they did ten years after the global financial collapse. Despite the fact that Canada’s fastest population growth in decades offers support for the housing demand, it has been faced with the problem of high debt levels which could trigger the next recession, she concluded.

She further explained that it will escalate beyond 2020, and the level of indebtedness coupled with the income anxiety occurring simultaneously, and we are not out of the woods. Caranci said that the next recession for Canada will be different from the recession that has occurred in the past as it will be a household led recession.

The chief economist at National Bank of Canada, Stefane Marion said that the risks around consumer finances will compel the Bank of Canada to be careful with the issue of increasing interest rates. He also added that there will be a path reassessment from the central bank after increasing the policy rate to two percent. He asserted that this will prevent a downturn led by consumers, as he does not visualize such incident waiting to occur in the housing sector.

He also suggested that there is a probability that the United States ten-year treasury bond yields could increase towards 3.5 percent at a time that the Federal Reserve is tightening and there is a presence of government deficits. It will definitely have impact in Canada and its mortgage rates.

The three economists confirmed that the risks of increased interest rates will be more visible around 2020. Most of the mortgage borrowers have their fixed rate loans for various terms to the period of five years; this signify that increment in the rates over the previous year will not have impact on their payments for some time. Donald suggested that further global risks are potential for a United States slowdown or economic recession in the next coming years and trade problems between China and the United States.

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For the fifth time Bank Indonesia raises rates to contain currency

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For the fifth time since May, the central Bank of Indonesia has increased its benchmark interest in an attempt to protect the rupiah from being affected by emerging markets globally. Based on the predictions of the larger part of the 37 economists interviewed in a Bloomberg survey, the seven-day reverse repurchase rate was increased by 25 basis points to 5.75 percent. Though, eight of them forecasted that there would be an aggressive action of 50 basis improvement.

The move made on Thursday ensured the entire amount of rate hikes in the last four months reach 1.5 percentage points, thereby making the Bank of Indonesia one of the most active central banks in the Asian region in this year that is tackling the market commotion that most developing economies are facing currently. The central bank Governor is more vigilant and on the lookout as there is an increase in the interest rates and escalation of trade tensions, which are causing irreparable damage to the foreign outflows.

According to the Governor, the stance of Bank Indonesia remains hawkish and preventive and ahead-of-the-curve measures will be taken. He also added that these procedures would be based on domestic and global dynamics and developments as well as those associated to the progress in the policy normalization of the Fed, trade war tension, and the behavior of global investors on Indonesia. In conclusion, he suggested the future policy action will be based on data.

The decision was reached a day after the interest rate was increased by the Fed for the third time in this year, with more tightening signs coming soon. The Philippine central bank also increased its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to 4.5 percent after the move was taken by Bank Indonesia, thereby moving its aggregate rate hikes since May to 1.5 percentage points.

It was on record on Thursday that the Rupiah lost nine percent against the US dollar this year, thereby making it the worst currency in Asia after India’s Rupee. Rupiah reduced to less than 0.1 percent to 14,914 against the dollar by 3 pm in Jakarta on Thursday. Apart from the increase in rates and the intervention in foreign exchange, the government has introduced import curbs to ensure the current-account deficit is not widened.

According to the Indonesia Central Bank Governor, Warjiyo, he opined that the decision is in harmony with concerted efforts to reduce the current-account deficit till it gets to a safe limit and ensure the maintenance of the appeal of domestic financial markets so that the external flexibility of Indonesia can be strengthened in the midst of prevalent global fears that are still on the high side.

The central bank forecast economic growth at five percent to 5.4 percent this year, with an expected inflation rate staying within 2.5 percent to 4.5 percent target in 2018 and 2019.

According to Wisnu Wardana, a renowned economist at PT Bank Danamon Indonesia, he said the move is in alliance with the continual pressure on the rupiah from the trade account and foreign net sale of rupiah-denominated assets. He said there is another anticipation of a 25 basis points rate increase by the end of the year.

The Bank Indonesia announced the launching of a domestic non-deliverable forward market, which will serve as an option for companies that want to hedge their dollar exposure and assist in the curbing of the volatility of Rupiah. The action is seen as a means of balancing the government’s efforts in the promotion of exports and maintaining moderation in the rate of importation.

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For the third time in 2018 Federal Reserve raises interest rates

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The benchmark interest rate was expectedly increased by one-quarter of a percentage point by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, with more signs that the rates will be raised once more in December. After the conclusion of its two-day meeting where the monetary policy is decided, the Federal Open Market Committee continually pronounced the economic conditions as strong. According to the released statement, the economic activity has been increasing at a stable rate with a strong outlook on factors such as the growth of household spending, business investment, as well as job growth.

The benchmark rate was moved to a range between 2 and 2.25 per cent by the Fed Reserve, this would be the eighth time the rate will be increased since the occurrence of the 2008 financial crisis, and the third increment in this year, the decision was a unanimous decision.

However, for the first time in the last few years, the monetary policy was not described as accommodative by the Fed as it was suggested that its benchmark interest rate is improving to a level that the Fed consider as neutral which means the monetary policy is not motivating or blocking economic growth.

This does not mean that Fed will no longer be increasing rates; the officials of the Fed Reserve cautioned that a tax cut in the face of robust economic expansion is unnecessary. On the contrary, this warning was ignored by President Trump and the Congress as the taxes were reduced and spending was significantly increased. The outcome of the decision is a short-term improvement in economic growth, which has strengthened the conviction of Fed that there is a need to continue with the process of increasing interest rates to ensure the inflation growth is controlled; the inflation is growing at a rate of two per cent yearly pace.

The members of the policy-making committee also forecasted that the central bank would increase its rates again for at least five times by the end of 2020 in a round of predictions made available to the public on Wednesday.

On the other hand, President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction regarding the increasing rates in his interview with CNBC in July. In his words, he said he does not like seeing increased rates despite the enormous work to ensure the economy is in excellent shape. There are some signs which show that the Fed is trying to constrain the growth of the economy. It is noticed that the rates offered by consumers have increased more at a slow pace than the benchmark rate. For instance, the average rate on a 30-year mortgage loan reached 4.55 percent in August, from a previous point of 3.96 percent in December 2015 based on the data from Freddie Mac. This increase is lower than a third of the rise in the rate of Fed over the same period.

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Federal Reserve ready to increase interest rates again as employment and income grow

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It seems as though the Federal Reserve are set to increase the interest rates Wednesday, this followed the response from the central bank on the up rise of inflation and the blooming hiring by U.S. recruiter, this is also the third time such occurrence is happening this year.

On Tuesday, a two-day meeting was commenced by the Federal Open Market Committee and stakeholders are in high expectancy as they wait for the policy makers to make some change to the rates charges on short-term loans. The Chairman of Fed during a press conference on Wednesday seemed to shed more light on the way forward with regards to the impact of this new policy on the economy and investors and economists are keeping their ears wide open on order to get a glimpse of what to expect in 2018.

The results of the 2008 financial crisis is what has led to the various policies that have been brought up and all is poised at making the U.S. economy bud and blossom once more. Since 2015, the rates have been raised seven times and there is no telling how many more increments would be made as they are two more hikes to be effected, one during the meeting and the other in December. As the year comes to an, the central bank has also been working on the closing up the balance sheets of the huge sum of money gotten from government bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

The strategy for making the economy steady has always been a gradual increment in the rate to prevent a sudden rise again. The policy makers, however, have announced four rate increases in 2018 and three in 2019, totaling seven.

The fed watchers strongly believe that the economic situation of the U.S. would give policy makers a better focus. The Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDP however forecasts that they would attain growth by a percentage of 4.4 towards the third quarter, which of course is an improvement and add to the record as being the second successive gain following another quarter by over 4 percent. As of August, the employment level remained at the same level, near it lowest rate, since 2002, the wages in turn have their gains increased since 2009. There is, however, an increase in the pressure and demand as the employment levels get stronger and the inflation agreeing with Fed’s internal measure. The FOMC are not having it easy with the signals on interest rates.

Bill Northey, senior vice president at U.S. Bank Wealth Management, stated that for the time being, the tension from trade and geopolitical issues are yet to burden the central’s bank dual mandate for supporting the employment threshold and steady price.

Taking a look at the markets’ views, it can be noticed that the market has totally followed the Fed’s prediction. Without any repercussion, we do anticipate that the prediction would come to completion,” he said, emphasizing that inflation and hourly wages are getting high.

Investors are responding quickly by putting an increment of 2 to 2.25 percent this week, all in a bid to follow the new policies made by Fed. Based on the CME’s FedWatch, Tool opens a new scope for the possibilities of a fourth increase by December with the odds being up to 74 percent.

“It would take something very significant to happen to have the Fed not increase the rates again this December,” said Tom Essaye, founder and editor of The Seven Report.

To an extent, the market cannot tell how the hike would take form in 2019 and what pace it would rise with. Globally, investors are taking a look at the yield curve, and they are saying it is reaching inversion which in turn means the rates on the short-term loan become higher than that of a long term loan. Inflation on the other hand remained unshaken in spite of the economic growth and general fall in unemployment.

Inflation, however, has begun to surface recently as the core personal experditure (CPE) which is the Fed’s inflation measure has met the central bank’s target thrice this year.

Basically, with the method of dot plot and forecast used to meet the expectations of policy makers on internet rates over the coming years, it will also provide them more clarity on the way forward for the hike rates. Fed are also considering removing the use of accommodative in describing their monetary policy, if this holds then it means they will not increase the rates more than thrice next year, Essaye explained.

The chances that the word will be removed is at 50-50 and once they do in 2019 it means we are almost at the end of the rate-hike cycle. The FOMC is set to issue a statement at 2 p.m. EST on Wednesday. Powell is also to address the media at 2:30 p.m. ET.

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Money market rates in Hong Kong increased to decade high before US Federal Reserve raises key interest rates

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The short-term money market rates in Hong Kong increased to their highest levels on Monday for the first time in ten years, as the Financial Secretary issued a warning to homebuyers to anticipate higher mortgages in response to the rise in the local expense of funds in lockstep with the United States benchmarks in the latter part of this week.

Hibor, which is the interbank offered rate by Hong Kong and a measure of the short-term lending between financial institutions with a 24-hour maturity, soared 176 basis points to 3.38 per cent, a level it has not attained since 2007. However, Hibor with one week and one month tenors increased to their highest points for the first time since 2008, thereby hiking 120 basis points to 2.87 per cent and 28 basis points to 2.17 per cent correspondingly.

Increased rates ensured the currency of the city is boosted for a third day, as the Hong Kong dollar was exchanged at the rate of 7.8091 per US dollar after its most substantial intra-day increase in fifteen years previous Friday, as a result of the anticipation of higher interest rates in the city. Most of the traders that were engaged in the transaction of arbitrage trades in the currency market by offering for sale lower yielding Hong Kong dollars for profitable US dollars are caught in the web and looking for a way out of the situation.

On the other hand, commercial banks have not increased their prime rates since 2008 even though the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, which serves as the city’s de facto central bank has been expanding its lending base in lock step with the Fed to ensure the Hong Kong dollar is pegged with the US dollar.

The local media outlet reported on Friday that the HKMA Chief Executive, Norman Chan Tak-lam confirmed that the banks in Hong Kong are required to regurgitate over increasing interest rates if the capital expenses increase in response to the widely expected US rate rise happening later this week. With visible signs that show that acquisition of funds is becoming more stringent and more expensive, some commercial banks increased their fixed deposit rates in a bid to continue a trend which began a few months ago.

According to Frances Cheung, the head of macro strategy, Westpac Asia, stricter liquidity conditions are responsible for the prompting anticipations for increased prime rates, which are inadvertently forcing Hibor higher.

In the words of, Asia currency strategist Eddie Cheung at Standard Chartered Bank, he said the squeeze in liquidity rates is somewhat announced with the quarter end approaching, and as a result of the strong funding demand for the public holiday Tuesday, and the national day coming up next week. Carie Li, an economist with OCBC Wing Hang Bank who is based in Hong Kong, he said that the Chinese hotpot chain Haidilao has halted about three billion Hong Kong (US$384.09 million) of capital meant for its initial public offering, which is due for release later in this week, and maintaining higher Hibor rates.

Any attempt to increase the prime rate of commercial banks would drive the rising real estate prices in Hong Kong nearer to a tipping point, with the highly leveraged nature of the property market of the city.

It is essential to pay attention to the signs of the waning property market as they are visible. For instance, Shu Qi, who is one of the highest earning actresses in China, offered her Tai Po Villa at a reduced cost of HK$2 million on Sunday. According to agents, the prices of home would fall over the next twelve months amidst expectations.

According to the Financial Secretary, Paul Chan Mo-Po, he said increased interest rates could adversely affect families with substantial mortgage responsibilities, resonating the caution he has announced on several occasions.

Current borrowers, with a total sum of HK$1.26 trillion in outstanding mortgage loans, are likely to be faced with similar pressure as there is a probability that banks are looking to improve their lending rate or prime rate, as early as this month ending; its first increase in twelve years.

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For the first time in seven years Norway increased benchmark rate

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For the first time in seven years, the central bank in Norway increased interest rates as the policymakers in the wealthiest economy in Scandinavia have begun the process of letting go of the record stimulus set up to handle the impact of the horrible oil crisis in a generation. Norges Bank increased the benchmark rate by a quarter point to 0.75 percent, a confirmation of the prediction done by twenty-three economists interviewed by Bloomberg before the decision was taken. Norges Bank said it would increase rates again by the beginning of the next year, but also surprisingly reduced its longer-term projections. As at 11:03 am, the krone fell one percent to 9.6418 per euro.

Norway’s Central Bank Governor, Oystein Olsen said there are restrictions to how fast rates can be raised by the central bank at a press conference, as he mentioned the krone and developments abroad as crucial factors.

Since June, the tightening process had been flagged and came at a time that the economy of the largest oil producer in Western Europe is getting close to capacity with an unemployment rate less than four percent, increased crude oil prices, and the inflation rate moving to its target position. However, the trading of the krone close to record lows has given Olsen and his team extra opportunity to increase interest rates.

Based on a comparison between the Norwegian central bank, and its contemporaries in Frankfurt and Stockholm, it is noteworthy that the Norwegian central bank is starting on a swifter exit from record stimulus than others. Supported by record fiscal stimulus from the wealth fund of the nation valued at $1 trillion, there is no need for Olsen to reduce rates as much as it is done in other places, and he did not make use of traditional policies like the purchase of bonds.

The nation’s offshore industry has been revived with the increase in the prices of crude oil this year; this has also enabled the government to start the process of saving money into the wealth fund for the first time since the latter part of 2015. This will be the first time the benchmark rate will rise up for most borrowers. The surge could signify an increased mortgage costs as most of the loans in Norway are closely tied to the three-month interbank lending rate, serving as a test for the housing market which has been improving after austere lending policies created a plunge in 2017. The bank said the doubts surrounding the impacts of greater interest rates insinuate a careful approach to the setting of interest rate.

Due to the domestic demand situation, the rate path was reduced after labor market developments and economic growth have been floppier than anticipated. Wage growth is expected to be weaker than its earlier estimate. The weaker krone and the increased oil prices have pulled the path in the opposite direction.

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